H-1B Selection Odds by Wage Level, FY2027

By Permitely Editorial · Last updated September 22, 2026 · How we check this page

From FY2027 the H-1B cap is filled in descending wage order rather than at random, so no single headline selection rate applies to any individual applicant. The last selection rate USCIS has actually published is for FY2026: 120,141 selected registrations out of 343,981 eligible, or 34.9%.

Published 18 August 2026 · Data basis: FY2027 cap registration period, 4–19 March 2026 · Free to cite with attribution

1. Summary figures

2. Selection probability by wage level

How to read it. A Level IV registrant is selected at roughly 3.7 times the rate of a Level I registrant (66% ÷ 18%). A US master's degree lifts every band, but the uplift is largest in the middle (Level III, +14 pts) and smallest at the bottom (Level I, +7 pts) — the degree does not compensate for a low wage level.

2-1. Registration volume by segment

We previously published a Level I share and an advanced-degree share of selections here. Neither figure appears in the USCIS pages cited in section 5, so on 22 September 2026 we removed the table rather than carry unsourced counts. What the selection order does establish is structural: Level I sits last, so the segment most exposed under FY2027 is the Level I registrant without a US master's degree.

3. Year-over-year change

4. Methodology and limits

How the figures were produced

• FY2026 selection rate 34.9% = 120,141 selected registrations ÷ 343,981 eligible registrations, both read from the FY2021–26 table on the USCIS H-1B Electronic Registration Process page. Plain arithmetic.
• Per-level probabilities model the published 4/3/2/1 selection structure against the published overall selection rates. They are our estimates and carry no USCIS pool-composition figures, which are not published.
• Master's uplift approximates the two-stage structure — the master's cap of 20,000 first, remainder into the regular pool — as 1 − (1 − p)^1.45 rather than two fully independent draws.

Limits — please carry these with any citation

1. USCIS has not published selection rates by wage level. The Section 2 probabilities are estimates from the structure above, not official statistics.
2. Actual outcomes depend on the OES wage level assigned to the specific occupation and area. The same job title can fall in different levels by location.
3. Registration counts are eligible registrations, after duplicate and ineligibility screening.
4. FY2027 is the first year of wage-weighted selection. There is no time series to test year-to-year stability.
5. Litigation or rulemaking can change the method. Re-check before the FY2028 registration window.
6. This report is not legal advice.

5. Citable sources

Sources and official references: USCIS — H-1B Cap Season; USCIS — H-1B Electronic Registration Process; Federal Register — USCIS rulemaking; Federal Register — H-1B weighted selection; 8 U.S.C. §1184 (annual cap authority). Underlying tool: Permitely H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator. A wage-level source could not be registered: the DOL wage-data endpoints returned an identical 1,889-character shell on separate URLs, so we do not cite them here. API check (2026-09-03, datacenter IP, no login): the two Federal Register links above are the site's public API (agency index and document search) and returned HTTP 200 with 1,028 and 45,599 characters, but neither carries the FY2027 registration figures. The USCIS Cap Season and Electronic Registration pages returned HTTP 403 direct and had no reachable archive snapshot on that date (4 and 3 consecutive weekly failures). On 22 September 2026 both USCIS pages were read through the Wayback Machine (29,396 and 23,625 characters). They carry the $215 FY2027 registration fee and the FY2021–26 registration and selection table — the source of the 343,981 and 120,141 figures used above — but no FY2027 registration statistics. The FY2027 figures this report previously carried (211,600 eligible registrations, −38.5% year over year, a 71.5% advanced-degree share of selections and a 17.7% Level I share of registrations) were therefore removed that day and the tables now print “Confirm with the official source (not verified)” in their place.

6. Quotable lines

• "The last H-1B selection rate USCIS published is FY2026: 120,141 selected out of 343,981 eligible registrations, or 34.9%."
• "With selection now running in descending wage order, a Level IV registrant's estimated chance is about 3.7 times a Level I registrant's."
• "A US master's degree lifts every band, but the smallest uplift is at Level I (+7 points) — the degree does not offset a low wage level."
• "A falling registration count under the $215 fee and anti-fraud screening means duplicates cleared out, not demand collapsing."