Data report

H-1B Selection Odds by Wage Level, FY2027

Registrations fell 38.5% to 211,600 while the cap stayed at 85,000 — but the resulting 40.2% headline selection rate is not what any individual applicant faces. Under the new wage-weighted rules, that rate is distributed by wage level, not evenly.

Published 18 August 2026 · Data basis: FY2027 cap registration period, 4–19 March 2026 · Free to cite with attribution

1. Summary figures

Item	Value	Type
FY2027 eligible registrations	211,600	USCIS announced
Change vs prior year	−38.5%	USCIS announced
Annual cap	85,000 (65,000 regular + 20,000 US master's)	Statutory
Overall selection rate	40.2%	Derived (85,000 ÷ 211,600)
US advanced-degree share of selections	71.5%	USCIS reported
Level I share of registrations	17.7%	USCIS reported
Selection order	Level IV → III → II → I	FY2027 wage-weighted rule
Second selection round	None for FY2027	USCIS announced
Registration fee	$215	USCIS

In one sentence. FY2027 replaced random selection with wage-level-descending selection; demand fell 38.5%, lifting the arithmetic selection rate to 40.2% — but that gain is not shared evenly across levels. Upper bands are close to a pass; the lowest band gets worse.

2. Selection probability by wage level

Wage level	Single draw	With US master's	Master's uplift	Relative weight
Level IV (highest)	66%	79%	+13 pts	1.85
Level III	52%	66%	+14 pts	1.45
Level II	30%	40%	+10 pts	0.80
Level I (entry)	18%	25%	+7 pts	0.45
(All registrants)	40.2%	—	—	1.00

How to read it. A Level IV registrant is selected at roughly 3.7 times the rate of a Level I registrant (66% ÷ 18%). A US master's degree lifts every band, but the uplift is largest in the middle (Level III, +14 pts) and smallest at the bottom (Level I, +7 pts) — the degree does not compensate for a low wage level.

2-1. Registration volume by segment

Segment	Count	Share
Level I registrations	~37,500	17.7% of registrations (USCIS reported)
US advanced-degree selections	~60,800	71.5% of the 85,000 selected

Level I alone is about one sixth of all registrations, yet it sits last in the selection order. Combined with advanced-degree holders taking roughly seven in ten selections, the segment most exposed under FY2027 is the Level I registrant without a US master's degree.

3. Year-over-year change

Item	FY2026	FY2027	Change
Eligible registrations	~344,100 (derived)	211,600	−132,500 / −38.5%
Cap	85,000	85,000	No change
Selection method	Random lottery	Wage level descending (4/3/2/1)	Structural
Second selection	Conducted	None	Discontinued
Arithmetic selection rate	~24.7% (derived)	40.2% (derived)	+15.5 pts

Citation warning. Quoting "the selection rate rose from 24.7% to 40.2%" on its own misreads FY2027. That 40.2% does not apply to everyone: upper wage levels fill the cap first, so the average gain concentrates at the top and the effective chance at the bottom can be worse than the prior year. Much of the 38.5% drop is reported to reflect the $215 fee and anti-fraud measures removing duplicate and speculative registrations — closer to duplicates being cleaned out than demand disappearing.

4. Methodology and limits

How the figures were produced

Overall selection rate 40.2% = statutory cap 85,000 ÷ eligible registrations 211,600. Plain arithmetic.
FY2026 registrations (~344,100) and prior-year rate (~24.7%) are back-calculated from the announced −38.5% change. USCIS did not publish them in that form.
Per-level probabilities model the published 4/3/2/1 selection structure and the reported pool composition (71.5% advanced degree, 17.7% Level I) against recent overall selection rates.
Master's uplift approximates the two-stage structure — the master's cap of 20,000 first, remainder into the regular pool — as 1 − (1 − p)^1.45 rather than two fully independent draws.

Limits — please carry these with any citation

USCIS has not published selection rates by wage level. The Section 2 probabilities are estimates from the structure above, not official statistics.
Actual outcomes depend on the OES wage level assigned to the specific occupation and area. The same job title can fall in different levels by location.
Registration counts are eligible registrations, after duplicate and ineligibility screening.
FY2027 is the first year of wage-weighted selection. There is no time series to test year-to-year stability.
Litigation or rulemaking can change the method. Re-check before the FY2028 registration window.
This report is not legal advice.

5. Citable sources

Sources and official references: USCIS — H-1B Cap Season; USCIS — H-1B Electronic Registration Process; Federal Register — USCIS rulemaking; Federal Register — H-1B weighted selection; 8 U.S.C. §1184 (annual cap authority). Underlying tool: Permitely H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator. A wage-level source could not be registered: the DOL wage-data endpoints returned an identical 1,889-character shell on separate URLs, so we do not cite them here.

Suggested citation. Permitely analysis (2026), based on USCIS FY2027 H-1B registration statistics. Per-wage-band probabilities are Permitely estimates, not USCIS figures.

6. Quotable lines

"FY2027 H-1B registrations came in at 211,600, down 38.5% year over year, while the 85,000 cap was unchanged."
"With selection now running in descending wage order, a Level IV registrant's estimated chance is about 3.7 times a Level I registrant's."
"A US master's degree lifts every band, but the smallest uplift is at Level I (+7 points) — the degree does not offset a low wage level."
"Much of the drop in registrations reflects the $215 fee and anti-fraud measures clearing duplicates, rather than a collapse in demand."